What is the SpaceX IPO and why does it matter?
SpaceX has filed publicly with the SEC and is targeting a Nasdaq listing on or around June 12, 2026, under the ticker SPCX. The company is seeking to raise approximately $75 billion at a reported valuation of $1.75 trillion — larger than all but a handful of the world’s biggest corporations, and what will be one of the largest IPOs in history.
The sheer scale of this offering makes it a significant market event.
How have IPOs historically performed for investors?
Dimensional Fund Advisors studied the first-year performance of more than 6,000 U.S. IPOs from 1992 to 2018. The findings were consistent across time periods: IPOs underperformed the Russell 3000 Index in both the full sample period and each sub-period examined. As a group, IPOs produced an annualized compound return of 6.93%, compared to 9.13% for the Russell 3000 over the same period.1
Dimensional’s research further found that the underperformance is not random — it reflects the fundamental characteristics of most newly public companies. IPOs as a group tend to resemble small, high-growth, low-profitability companies, a profile that academic finance has long associated with lower expected returns relative to the market.1
SpaceX is exceptional in scale, but the structural dynamics of IPO investing apply regardless.
Is SpaceX overvalued at $1.75 trillion?
SpaceX reported $18.7 billion in revenue for 2025, driven primarily by its Starlink satellite internet service, which has grown to an estimated 8.5 million subscribers worldwide.
Analysts at AJ Bell have noted that a $1.75 trillion valuation would imply a price-to-sales ratio of approximately 67 times — three times the comparable ratio for Nvidia based on its most recent financials.2 Morningstar has estimated SpaceX’s fair value at approximately $780 billion, roughly 55% below the IPO target valuation.3
Valuation differences of this magnitude are not unusual for early-stage or high-growth public companies. Markets incorporate a wide range of assumptions about future growth, competitive position, and risk. Different analysts weigh those factors differently, and the ultimate price at which any stock trades reflects the collective judgment of all buyers and sellers at a given moment.
Can retail investors actually access SpaceX IPO shares?
SpaceX is offering only 3 to 4% of its shares this week, so it is probable that initial demand will be greater than supply on the first day of trading, expected to be Friday, June 12. At the start of trading, there may be dramatic price gains. However, accessing those initial returns requires a share allocation from the underwriting banks and the ability to sell to realize the gain. Research has shown that the most favorable allocations are typically reserved for institutional clients who commit to buying and holding a majority of a bank’s initial public offerings. Retail investors who purchase shares in the secondary market after trading begins generally miss the initial price movement and take on more of the subsequent volatility.4
Studies have also documented an adverse selection problem: IPO allocations with poor first-day results tend to be easier to obtain, while allocations to IPOs with strong first-day results have historically been reserved for preferred clients of the underwriting banks.1
Will SpaceX be added to index funds?
Nasdaq recently revised its index inclusion rules, effective May 1, 2026. Under the new “Fast Entry” provisions, a newly listed company ranking among the top 40 by market capitalization becomes eligible for the Nasdaq-100 after just 15 trading days, down from a previous three-month seasoning period. At its expected valuation, SpaceX would qualify immediately.5
The Russell 1000 is expected to add SpaceX within approximately five trading days of the IPO. The S&P 500 has a longer timeline; under current eligibility rules, SpaceX would likely not qualify until later in 2026 due to profitability requirements — the company posted a net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025 and $4.28 billion in the first quarter of 2026 alone.6
What should I understand about the SpaceX IPO before making any decisions?
For investors considering any purchase of a stock or fund, it is important to read the prospectus. Don’t assume that if others want to buy into a company, they have done the necessary due diligence. For SpaceX, its 282 pages are available here.
As we outlined in our blog, every investment should be evaluated in the context of your overall portfolio, your goals, time horizon, capacity, and tolerance for risk. It is important to understand the role of an investment in your portfolio:
- Is the effort in analyzing the risks appropriate, given the potential to materially change your wealth?
- If it doubles or halves in value, how will it change the likelihood of achieving your financial goals? Or is it a fun purchase akin to betting on a winning horse at the Kentucky Derby or on the NY Knicks to win the NBA championship?
Sources:
1 Dimensional Fund Advisors, “IPOs: Profiles Are High. What About Returns?” (2019)
² Dan Coatsworth, AJ Bell, as reported by CNBC, “SpaceX Is Worth Less Than Half Its IPO Target Price, Morningstar Says,” June 3, 2026. Available at cnbc.com.
³ Nicolas Owens, Morningstar, “SpaceX: What Investors Need to Know About Its Enormous Upcoming IPO,” June 2026. Available at morningstar.com.
4 Dimensional Fund Advisors, “Do IPOs Have a Place in Your Portfolio?” (2025)
5 ETF.com; Nasdaq Fast Entry Rule, effective May 1, 2026
6 SpaceX S-1/A filing, June 2026